The Daily Gamecock

SEC Week Four Picks

Florida players celebrate after a come-from-behind 28-27 win against Tennessee at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/TNS)
Florida players celebrate after a come-from-behind 28-27 win against Tennessee at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/TNS)

Week 3 Record: (10-0)

Overall: (27-8)

There were no surprises in the SEC last week. Alabama avoided losing to Ole Miss for a third consecutive season and remained as the No. 1 team in the country. Week Four features five conference games, three of which are ranked matchups.

Kent State at No. 1 Alabama (12 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

The Crimson Tide survived a shootout with Ole Miss in Oxford last week. Jalen Hurts and Damien Harris overpowered the Rebels' defense on the ground, combining for 290 rushing yards.

Alabama once again asserted themselves atop the SEC West but showed potential weaknesses on defense while giving up over 400 yards passing to Chad Kelly.

While the secondary looks to recover from a subpar performance, the defensive line led by Jonathan Allen will continue to harass opposing quarterbacks and limit the opponent's rushing game.

The Kent State offense has been a struggle so far and will have a tough time accumulating yards against Alabama’s defense. Quarterback Mylik Mitchell will need to find some of the same holes Ole Miss exploited a week ago to compete with the Tide.

Hurts and Harris are primed for another big day on the ground against the Golden Flashes. Hurts should throw for more yards than last week, and Calvin Ridley will match up well against the Kent State defense.

The Pick: Alabama 62, Kent State 6

The Tide have a big advantage over the Golden Flashes and will dominate both sides of the ball. This one shouldn’t be close. The size and strength of Alabama will be too much to overcome for Kent State.

No. 12 Georgia at No. 23 Ole Miss (12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Both teams have developed noteworthy trends through the first quarter of the season. Georgia has won its last two games by a combined three points, while Ole Miss has twice blown leads of 21 points or more.

The Bulldogs' offense once again struggled to maintain a consistent running game last week against Missouri. In order to get a road win this week, that must change. Nick Chubb is poised for a breakout game against an Ole Miss defense that was dominated by Alabama.

The Georgia defense was able to force five turnovers against Missouri but will have to patch some holes in the secondary that proved to be costly. If the Bulldogs can’t improve the run game and the secondary, they must win the turnover battle to have a chance.

Chad Kelly has potential for another big game, and he'll need one to help the Rebels avoid a 1-3 start. The offense must find more production from Akeem Judd and the run game to prevent becoming one-dimensional.

Defensively, the Rebels have to improve in the box to contain Chubb. Their focus will be to pressure freshman quarterback Jacob Eason and force him to throw down the field.

The Pick: Ole Miss 44, Georgia 39

The Rebels gain the advantage with the matchup of Chad Kelly versus the struggling Georgia secondary. Chubb will take advantage of the Ole Miss run defense and have a huge game, but it won’t be enough to win.

No. 19 Florida at No. 14 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Florida has beaten Tennessee 11 consecutive times. This year, the outcome of the matchup will play a large part in determining who will represent the SEC East in Atlanta.

The Gators finally were clicking on offense when quarterback Luke Del Rio left with a left knee injury against North Texas. Del Rio will miss this week’s game, leaving Purdue transfer Austin Appleby with the reins.

With the change at quarterback, Florida will have to rely on a balanced backfield to carry the offense. The ability to choose between four capable backs will allow the Gators to keep fresh legs on the field throughout the game.

The Florida defense has been the best in the country so far this season, which does not bode well for a struggling Tennessee offense. Joshua Dobbs has yet to find a rhythm at quarterback and hasn’t been the leader the Vols need him to be.

The Tennessee offensive line has not been strong enough for a true running game to develop. They must improve fast to compete with an extremely physical Florida defense.

The Volunteer defense will focus on making Appleby throw the ball and will have to contain the run. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin will play after getting banged up a week ago and will be a key in stopping the Gators rushing offense.

The Pick: Florida 23, Tennessee 17

This may be an offensive struggle but expect the Florida defense to be the key factor in the win. A defensive touchdown by the Gators will be enough to propel them to a victory and extend the streak to 12 over Tennessee.

Mississippi State at UMass (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Mississippi State will take to the road to face UMass after nearly pulling off the upset over LSU.

The Bulldogs need to find a permanent answer at quarterback. Both Nick Fitzgerald and Damian Williams saw time a week ago, but neither appeared to grab hold of the job. This week has to be the last audition. One must take charge so the Bulldogs coaching staff can focus on developing his skill set.

The defense has been able pick up for the offense and has kept the Bulldogs in games. A.J. Jefferson is an elite lineman who has consistently been able to get to the quarterback. The group should be able to take advantage of their size over UMass and have another great performance.

MSU will have to improve their rushing game against the Minutemen. Look for Brandon Holloway to get more touches this week while the quarterback battle continues to play out.

UMass needs to keep pressure on the quarterback and lock down receiver Fred Ross to remain in the game.

The Pick: Mississippi State 38, UMass 10

UMass is looking to catch the Bulldogs sleeping but won’t have enough offense to stay close. Nick Fitzgerald will grab hold of the starting job with a road win over the Minutemen.

Delaware State at Missouri (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

The 1-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story for Missouri. The Tigers were one bad defensive drive away from upsetting Georgia last week and have played better as of late.

Drew Lock has looked like a completely different quarterback since his opening week struggles against West Virginia. However, interceptions have been a problem and could be the main reason for the loss a week ago.

Junior J’Mon Moore has been a reliable target for Lock and will look for another big game against the undersized Hornets.

The Tigers defense did a magnificent job of containing Nick Chubb and Georgia’s dynamic running game. The challenge should be easier this week against Delaware State.

The Hornets are 0-2 on the season with losses to Monmouth and Delaware. While they do not present much of a challenge to the Tigers, the university should collect a nice payday in their trip to Columbia.

The Pick: Missouri 54, Delaware State 9

Missouri will run away in this game. Lock will need to avoid the interceptions and stay in rhythm before the Tigers make the trip to Baton Rouge to face LSU next week.

Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)

Vanderbilt attempted to throw the ball more last week against Georgia Tech, but the strategy didn’t seem to change things. Georgia Tech broke the Commodores' veteran defense and moved the ball at will throughout the game.

Kyle Shurmur was still unable to find a primary receiver to target down the field, and Ralph Webb had a slow game by his standards. Vanderbilt will have to accept the identity of their team and feed Webb most of the offensive touches. Shurmurhas to hit the short passes and be efficient.

The Commodores defense is surely glad they won’t see the option offense after getting torched by the Yellow Jackets. The secondary will have a tough challenge in containing the explosive Western Kentucky offense.

The Hilltoppers have a pass-heavy offense led by quarterback Mike White. They hope to be more successful against the Vanderbilt defense than they were against Alabama two weeks ago.

If WKU can stop Webb from having a big day they have a good chance at the win.

The Pick: Western Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 28

The Hilltoppers will grab a win for the second straight season against Vanderbilt. Commodore head coach Derek Mason already sits on the hot seat, and a loss here could be the end of the line.

No. 18 LSU at Auburn (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)

LSU has been a disappointment to most this season. A narrow victory over Mississippi State last week has some calling for head coach Les Miles to be fired.

Danny Etling was decent at quarterback last week, but his ability to lead LSU through the SEC West is still questionable. Leonard Fournette remains the only reliable player on the offense and will be the primary source of yards against Auburn’s struggling run defense.

The Bayou Bengal defense should be able to keep Auburn’s offense in check. Sean White and John Franklin III are still battling for the starting quarterback position, placing a lot of pressure on running backs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson to produce.

The duo has been productive thus far but can’t carry the offense alone. They will be challenged this week against LSU’s ferocious front seven.

The Pick: Auburn 20, LSU 17

It will be an offensive struggle in a game that has huge implications on both coaches' jobs. Auburn’s defense will contain Fournette enough to force Etling into mistakes. The offense will manage just enough yards, combined with big plays from the special teams to upset LSU.

South Carolina at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

South Carolina enters with two wins on the season, the more recent of which was largely due to untimely turnovers by East Carolina and a superb red zone defense.

Brandon McIlwain has secured the starting job at quarterback after reaching the end zone twice a week ago. Running back David Williams played a big part in the win and will look for another big day against Kentucky.

The Gamecock defense still has work to do after ECU moved the ball at will for much of the game. Coach Will Muschamp would like his defense to generate more pass rush against the Wildcats.

Kentucky quarterback Stephen Johnson played well against New Mexico, after Drew Barker left the game with a back injury. Running backs Stanley “Boom” Williams and Benjamin Snell Jr. will both need big games for the Wildcats to win.

The Kentucky defense has been absolutely awful. They enter ranked at 122nd in the nation and last in the SEC in total defense. Combine that with the struggling Gamecock offense and something has to give.

The Pick: South Carolina 31, Kentucky 30

The Gamecocks will finally find offense against Kentucky. At the end of the day, it’s the better of the two weaknesses between the South Carolina offense and Kentucky defense that will prevail. South Carolina’s freshmen playmakers give them the nod.

No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (Arlington, TX) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Arkansas is looking to claim their first conference win of the season behind quarterback Austin Allen and dynamic running back Rawleigh Williams III.

Allen has been fairly efficient, while Williams’ success has helped reduce some of his pressure. Arkansas will look to spread the field and run the ball wide to neutralize the Aggies star defensive lineman Myles Garrett.

The Razorbacks defensive line has been brilliant. If they can get pressure on Knight and force a few mistakes, they could have a big day.

Running back Trayveon Williams and quarterback Trevor Knight carried the Aggies past Auburn last week. The combo will be huge against Arkansas, whose defense has played well this season.

The Aggies receiving core continues to produce from top to bottom and will be difficult for the Razorbacks secondary to account for.

Garrett will be a nightmare for the Hogs' offensive live and will undoubtedly demand a double team for most of the game.

The Pick: Texas A&M 40, Arkansas 35

The depth at wide receiver for the Aggies will cause matchup problems for the Razorbacks' secondary. Knight’s experience over Allen’s is also a difference maker in this SEC West matchup.


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