As some college teams are wrapping up their seasons, the arguments for the fourth year of the College Football Playoff are just beginning.
After the top two teams — Alabama and Miami — lost in the last week of the regular season, the latest rankings do not feature either team. If this holds up, this will be the first time Alabama has not made it to the Playoff in the competition's four year history.
The upcoming week of Power 5 conference championships will have a big impact for many teams and the selection committee. Here are the possible outcomes after this week's slate of games, and what Alabama needs to do to make it to four straight playoff appearances:
ACC and SEC Champions
The ACC and SEC Conference Champions will make up half of the College Football Playoff bracket. The ACC Championship game will feature a one-loss Miami team vs. a one-loss Clemson team. Clemson currently holds the No. 1 spot in the playoff rankings and Miami got bumped out of the Top 5 with its loss to Pittsburgh this past weekend.
That does not mean that it can’t make its way back in.
A one-loss ACC conference champion is almost certain to be in the playoffs, whether it’s Clemson or Miami.
The SEC conference championship features Georgia and Auburn, which knocked off No. 1 Alabama last week in the Iron Bowl. While Georgia is currently ranked sixth, it could still snag a spot with a win over Auburn next week.
Wisconsin and Oklahoma
With the Top 2 teams losing last week, the door was opened for other teams to move up in the rankings. Wisconsin and Oklahoma both moved up one spot from last week. Both teams are playing in their conference championships and if both come out with a win, they should be able to take the next two spots beside the ACC and SEC conference champions.
If one of these teams loses, it becomes a different story. Ohio State will play against Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, and currently sits at eighth. With a win next weekend, the Buckeyes bring a strong argument for a spot in the playoffs. They will be a two-loss conference champion, similar to Auburn if it also wins.
If Oklahoma loses, it is very unlikely that a team from the Big 12 will get a spot. TCU had a great beginning to its season until it lost to No. 25 Iowa State. TCU also lost to Oklahoma a few weeks ago — the same team it will play in the Big 12 Championship.
Though the Horned Frogs beat the No. 6 team at the time in Oklahoma State in Week 4, their only other major win would be the conference championship. Their two loses come against Top 25 opponents and the teams ranked ahead of them bring better arguments for a spot than they do.
Alabama and Ohio State
Alabama could be left out of the College Football Playoff for the first time since the Playoff's conception in 2014. For the second straight year, the SEC Championship does not feature Alabama — the first time this has happened since the 2013 season. Between the ACC and SEC champions, two spots will already be locked. If Wisconsin and Oklahoma win their conferences like they are expected to, the selection committee should not have a tough time leaving Alabama out.
If Oklahoma loses to TCU in the Big 12 conference championship this weekend, it will most likely open the door for Alabama. TCU sits at 11th in this week’s playoff rankings and already has two loses. Alabama is a one-loss team sitting in fifth, so an Oklahoma loss could put Alabama in the playoffs.
If Wisconsin also loses, that opens the door for Ohio State, but only if Oklahoma loses, too. If only one team loses, I do not see an argument that would put Ohio State in ahead of Alabama. Ohio State would be a two-loss conference champion with huge wins over tough Big Ten opponents. All the Buckeyes can do right now is strive to defeat Wisconsin, and hope TCU can pull off the upset against Oklahoma.
Predictions and projections
If the top four teams win their conferences, there would be no reason to change the standings. Clemson would stay at one, Auburn two, Oklahoma three and Wisconsin four. If all four of these teams lose, the next four up would be Miami, Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. Georgia would probably be No. 1 because it would be the SEC champion and Miami would probably edge out Alabama for No. 2. Both teams would hold one loss, but Miami would be the ACC champion. That leaves Ohio State with the fourth spot.
No team is a lock for the playoffs, but I definitely see Oklahoma and Clemson winning in their respective conference championships. Both teams have been playing incredibly well, scoring more than 30 points the last three weeks and winning those three games by more than two touchdowns.
The Bulldogs have arguably the best running back duo in the nation with Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. These two, plus Jake Fromm’s great play as of late, could do enough to steal the SEC title from Auburn.
Ohio State is more than capable of beating Wisconsin. Though Wisconsin completed an undefeated regular season, Ohio State has wins over Michigan State and Penn State, which was the No. 2 team at the time. With these outcomes, Clemson and Oklahoma would take the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively, and Georgia would take No. 3. That leaves Alabama and Ohio State for the fourth spot.
While Ohio State would have two loses, it would have Big Ten conference champion next to its name. I cannot predict which way the committee will lean, but I think Alabama will take the fourth spot as the second SEC team. If it comes down to this decision, it would be one of the harder arguments the committee will have to sit through.
Outside of that, the selection committee should have a relatively easy time picking the four playoff teams.