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You never can get a true read of the National Football League season until every team has played at least four games. Now that we are at that point, it’s time for the first power rankings of the season.
THE AXIS OF SUCK
32. St. Louis Rams
I’ll give the Rams this — they play hard each week. They played hard for Jim Haslett last year, and they’re playing hard for Steve Spagnuolo this year. Other than that, it’s impossible to not call a spade a spade — this is the worst team in the NFL, bar none.
I don’t think the front office has any concept of where they’re going. They went for the hot young defensive coach when they had an offense-inclined roster, bypassing offensive (and cheaper) guys like Jason Garrett. That being said, they didn’t really get Spags any defensive players this offseason outside of James Laurinaitis, opting to continue to bring guys in for the offense — which hasn’t worked either, as they’ve already been shut out twice in four games.
Yeah, part of the problem is Mark Bulger being out and Kyle Boller being in, and part of the problem is that Steven Jackson has proven he can’t be effective without a passing threat behind him. That being said, Mark Karney has done nothing, the line is still horrible (hence no Bulger), the wideouts can’t make plays, and on and on.
They’re horrible, but in no way do I expect them to be sitting at the bottom of the league when it’s all said and done. This is a bad, bad team, but because they come to play each week, they’ll win two or three games by catching somebody looking ahead.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa has been atrocious, but they will be the annual Late Bloomer team for 2009. They’ll go into their bye week (Week 8) 0-7, and on the plane ride home from London (they play the Patriots in this year’s UK game) Raheem Morris will name Josh Freeman the starting quarterback, Freeman will go through some growing pains but ultimately breathe new life into the team, help steal a game or two down the stretch, and the Bucs will be a trendy sleeper pick heading into 2010.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
Todd Haley and Scott Pioli (from this day forward, I will refer to them as Halioli) are two guys who I think really have the right idea. They will build a winner if they are given time. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that they are a tad bit too abrasive to last very long.
There’s talent in Kansas City – they were much better than 2-14 last year and 0-5 this year – but it’s not meeting its potential right now. Halioli needs to get it going.
GOING NOWHERE
29. Tennessee Titans
Feel free to laugh and point, because the Titans were my AFC South pick and one of my AFC finalists. I really have no idea what has gone wrong; perhaps they just weren’t ever that good?
28. Buffalo Bills
This is a big moment in my column-writing career – I’m going to make a public call for a sports curse to be ratified into society. Ladies and gentlemen, the Curse of Doug Flutie.
(Yes, you have heard of a Doug Flutie curse before – great minds can think alike – but those theories deals with Wade Phillips and can affect any team that employs him; mine just deals with the Bills and makes a thousand times more sense. I digress.)
I was listening to the great Bill Simmons on his podcast the other day, and he made a great point – barring some miracle turnaround, the Bills will go ofer on the decade; becoming the only non-expansion franchise (Houston) and team not named the Detroit Lions to not make the postseason in the 2000’s.
Buffalo hasn’t experienced the postseason since 1999, when the greatest finish to a football game that didn’t involve the Stanford Marching Band drove a stake right through the hearts of the Buffalo faithful and catalyzed a magical Super Bowl run by the Tennessee Titans.
However, there’s more to the story than the ‘Music City Miracle.’ Much more.
We have to go back to Week 17 of the ‘99 regular season. Flutie, the legendary Heisman Trophy-winning Boston College quarterback, Canadian league great, and 1998 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, had led the Bills to a 10-5 start and a playoff berth with a game to go.
In a move to give Flutie “rest,” then-head coach Wade Phillips started backup Rob Johnson, who played well. At that point, supposedly, Bills owner Ralph Wilson ordered the Wadester to start Johnson in the playoff game against Tennessee, leaving a disgruntled Flutie on the bench.
Quickly, it was revealed that Johnson, while he had a big arm, wore a Jim McMahon headband, and looked somewhat like Keanu Reaves, wasn’t exactly cut out for the whole quarterbacking a potential Super Bowl team thing. Johnson struggled most of the day but managed to pull together what appeared to be a game-winning drive, with Steve Christie’s field goal giving Buffalo a 16-15 lead with 16 seconds left. As we all know, Frank Wycheck and Kevin Dyson had other ideas.
That play goes beyond just bad luck though. No, that play was when the cosmos bumped up the Buffalo Bills from snake-bitten to doomed. Look at what has happened since:
2000: The Flutie/Johnson controversy continues, Flutie is finally reinstalled as the starter but it’s too little, too late, as the Bills go 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Flutie leaves for San Diego with GM John Butler.
2001: Gregg Williams and his crazy gray streak of hair replaces Phillips and goes 3-13. Antowain Smith, whom new GM Tom Donahoe failed to re-sign, wins the first of two Super Bowls as the Patriots’ starting tailback.
2002: After a season of Johnson and Alex Van Pelt at quarterback, Buffalo acquires Drew Bledsoe from the champion Patriots and bounces back to go 8-8.
2003: Bledsoe leads a 31-0 beatdown of the Pats in the season opener, but the Bills finish 6-10. Legendary announcer Van Miller retires abruptly and Smith wins another title with New England.
2004: Under new head coach Mike Mularkey, Buffalo starts 0-4 and then rallies to 9-6, only to blow a playoff spot at home vs. Pittsburgh on the final day of the season.
2005: Bledsoe is released, and heir-apparent J.P. Losman is named starter, until he is benched for Kelly Holcomb. Both play poorly all year. Bills go 5-11.
2006: Donahoe fired; Marv Levy returns as GM. Mularkey resigns, Dick Jauron is hired as head coach. Losman-led team goes 7-9, appearing in no primetime games.
2007: Another 7-9 season. Losman flames out again, Trent Edwards begins to play, Kevin Everett incident occurs.
2008: Edwards and Bills start 5-1, Jauron becomes first Bills coach since Levy to receive contract extension, team then finishes 2-9 down the stretch, with Rian Lindell’s Norwood-esque wide right field goal attempt costing Bills a Monday Night game against the lowly Browns and beginning their tailspin.
2009: Currently 1-4, Terrell Owens building up to an inevitable meltdown that turns the season into a full-fledged debacle, team in danger of moving to Canada (or elsewhere), fans disgusted with franchise (see the boos after the Browns game), Losman starting for Las Vegas Locomotives of UFL.
I think I just wrote the script for another Vincent Gallo film.
27. Cleveland Browns
They won a game – although I’d prefer to use the term “avoided losing” to define the 6-3 triumph in Buffalo – but that doesn’t change the debacle that is the Browns.
Eric Mangini was the single-worst coaching hire of the decade. Save the 2006 season, where he made the playoffs with the same Super Bowl-capable team that had been ravaged with injuries under Herm Edwards the year before, the guy’s been an abject failure. Now, he’s brought his bullying mentality to Cleveland, and lo and behold, everybody hates him.
Players aren’t going to follow Mangini down the hallway to the bathroom, much less into the week-to-week battle of professional football. His defense has the intensity and strength of a paper bag, he’s likely destroyed the Cleveland career of one young quarterback (Brady Quinn), he’s well on his way with another (Derek Anderson), and every other guy in the locker room is filing a grievance with the union.
Here’s my advice to Browns’ management:
1. Fire Mangini
2. Fill a dumptruck with millions of dollars in cash
3. Drive said dumptruck to Durham, N.C.
4. Dump said money on Bill Cowher’s front lawn
5. Offer Cowher full control of everything, from what company the stadium urinal cakes are purchased from to who the first round draft pick will be.
DYSFUNCTION CITY
26. Oakland Raiders
Anytime your quarterback is being heavily fined, overweight, tardy to almost every practice or meeting (and occasionally not even there), and utterly incompetent on the field, your top draft pick has three times as many syllables in his name as catches on the season, and your coach is negotiating a plea deal to avoid jail time and a felony assault conviction, it’s safe to say you won’t be playing postseason football.
25. Washington Redskins
Anything and everything is in play for the final 11 games of the Redskins’ season. Nothing would shock me.
A loss to Kansas City this weekend? Yep. Jim Zorn fired before the end of December? Most definitely. Clinton Portis and Mike Sellers attacking each other in the huddle? I could see it happening. Dan Snyder trying to get Joe Gibbs again? Probably was already attempted at their dinner date in Charlotte this past week.
(And, for the record, I think firing Zorn would be a huge mistake. Zorn reminds me of
George Allen – he’s upbeat, zany, eager to poke and prod the Cowboys and reignite the gamesmanship that defined the rivalry in the 70’s, and he knows how to develop quarterbacks. It isn’t Zorn’s fault; it’s Snyder’s for giving him a prehistoric offensive line, no gamebreakers on offense – Clinton Portis’ days as an elite back are over – and just overall not supporting him. Bring Gibbs in as a GM, get out of the way, and let Zorn and him rebuild.)
UNSPECTACULARLY BAD
24. Detroit Lions
The defense has played better, Matt Stafford looks promising, there seems to be a real plan in place – Jim Schwartz deserves some Coach of the Year buzz if Detroit can win three or four games.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
22. Houston Texans
It’s tough to tell these two apart – both have flashes of greatness, both struggle for consistency, both are bound to finish 8-8 and at least four games behind the Colts.
I HONESTLY DON’T KNOW
21. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay had 8-8 talent in 2007 and went 13-3. They had 8-8 talent last year and went 5-11. This year? The 8-8 talent, I think, goes 8-8. However, Aaron Rodgers is the type of guy that could win three or four games on his own.
20. Arizona Cardinals
The defending NFC champs have started slow, but a lot better than I thought they would. Be wary of jumping aboard just yet though – they have a very tough schedule these next few weeks.
NOT DEAD YET
19. Seattle Seahawks
Rattled by injuries early on, what was on the brink of a season lost turned right faster than the General Lee on Sunday, as Matt Hasselbeck returned after recovering from broken ribs and threw four touchdown passes in a 41-0 romp over Jacksonville. At 2-3, the ‘Hawks are only a game out of the NFC West lead.
18. Carolina Panthers
Forget that column I wrote about 0-3 teams a few weeks back – I’m one good thrashing of Tampa Bay away from getting back aboard the Panthers’ bandwagon.
The 0-3 start was, in large part, attributable to the fact that they never got in the offensive rhythm they need to succeed. Jake Delhomme isn’t going to be able to win games on his own – he needs a running game behind him, and until this past weekend, he didn’t get one.
It wasn’t in any ways a spectacular rushing attack (86 yards) but it did the job of making the ‘Skins play honest and opening up the field for Delhomme. With two gimmes (Bucs this week and Buffalo next) they should easily be 3-3 and in a groove when they head to Arizona on Nov. 1.
17. Miami Dolphins
They started 0-2 last year and made the playoffs. Could they make me look like even more of an idiot and do it from 0-3?
LURKING IN THE SHADOWS
16. Dallas Cowboys
I really want to believe in Tony Romo – he’s got the name, personality and look of a big-time NFL quarterback – but we’re in Year 4, and he’s gotten really no better than he was when he came out for the second half of the Monday night game against the Giants in 2006. He puts up stats against bad teams, but he hasn’t come close to the top echelon just yet.
This will be one of the biggest storylines for the rest of the season. Romo is either going to mature and lead this team to the postseason, or he too will be thrown out the door with Wade Phillips at year’s end.
15. San Francisco 49ers
A good, solid football team that needs a running game to survive, the Niners have got to be worried about getting Frank Gore back in a timely manner. Maybe MC Hammer can work something out with his doctor.
14. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan is becoming a transcendent superstar before our eyes, but the Dirty Birds don’t have a lot of size on either side of the ball. They’ll have to be perfect against a lot of much more physical teams to have a shot at the postseason.
13. Chicago Bears
They’ll go as far as Jay Cutler can take them.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
You really can’t get a beat on them until they play another week or two at full strength.
JURY’S OUT
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
My column about their demise may have been a bit presumptive, but they have to play better to succeed in what appears to be a three-horse race in the AFC North.
9b. Baltimore Ravens
9a. Cincinnati Bengals
I group them together because I really don’t think last Sunday’s game was a true assessment of either team. It was too emotional a game.
The Bengals’ effort in memory of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife Vikki, who died suddenly earlier in the week, was among the most moving and valiant performances I’ve ever seen in sports, especially the NFL.
Keeping that intensity week-to-week though will be tough for the Bengals, and the Ravens can’t be faulted for walking into an absolute buzzsaw of a game.
8. New York Jets
The Miami loss aside, if you had told me that the Jets would be a young, exciting team destined to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs to a bonafide Super Bowl contender because of a proxy war between Braylon Edwards and LeBron James’ posse, I would’ve called you an idiot.
That’s where we are now though. Edwards, assuming he can catch the football, moves Gang Green from “cute, fun story” territory to “real deal” in no time. Their schedule is tailor-made for a playoff run. Only two of the final twelve games stand out as truly difficult for the Jets – Week 11 at New England (the surest blowout of the year – if the line was Pats -21, I’d still take it) and Week 16 at Indianapolis (which, considering the way the Colts are going, could be considerably easier if Indy has clinched the South and their seeding and is resting starters by then).
7. San Diego Chargers
Norv Turner is their coach, but they always have the capability to beat you if they’re on.
6. New England Patriots
They don’t have a running back that you can pencil in for 100 yards every week. Their redzone offense is anemic. The defense, while solid, really doesn’t spark much fear in opponents. They’ve been heavily lacking of the Patriot mystique, losing two games (the Jets game and Denver this past weekend) that they always used to win.
All that doesn’t matter – New England is scary. They’ve moved into Muhammad Ali before the fight with George Foreman in Zaire mode. They look old, they seem old, and their prime seems to have passed – but they’re still around, and if A, B and C fall into place, they can kill you. The Pats are working the ropes right now; in three or four weeks, look for them to start throwing knockout punches.
THE CONTENDERS
5. Denver Broncos
I’ll be honest; I’ve never seen a team like Denver. Never before has a team so universally assumed horrible proven to be this good.
3-0 and 4-0 can end up being an aberration and has been one in the past. The 2000 Jets started 4-0 and finished 9-7. They weren’t untalented though; three of those four early wins were against teams that finished .500 or better. The 2002 Panthers started 3-0 and then lost eight straight games en route to 7-9. None of those first three wins for Carolina were against decent teams though.
I figured Denver would end up falling somewhere in-between those two teams, but they’re for real, make no bones about it. This may be the best post-Elway team they’ve had. Josh McDaniel is the runaway coach of the year, and Kyle Orton deserves to be in the MVP discussion.
4. New Orleans Saints
I’m eager to see their defense and if it can hold up against the Giants this weekend, but if they keep scoring points, and can find a way to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, securing the last true home field advantage in football, the Superdome on gameday, the Halas Trophy may end up being theirs.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Part of me wants the Vikes to get to the Super Bowl because, if nothing else, Skip Bayless’ head would explode.
THE FAVORITES
1b. New York Giants
1a. Indianapolis Colts
I don’t know who should be on top. The Giants haven’t really played anyone yet, but they seem to have no weaknesses at all. Indy has delivered several decisive beatdowns in primetime, but their run game leaves something to be desired at times, and you really never can fully buy into a Colt defense in this decade. We’ll see what happens.
Onto the Week 6 picks (home teams in CAPS) ……
CINCINNATI over Houston
Detroit over GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA over Baltimore
N.Y. GIANTS over New Orleans
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland
Carolina over TAMPA BAY
Kansas City over WASHINGTON
JACKSONVILLE over St. Louis
SEATTLE over Arizona
Philly over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee
N.Y. JETS over Buffalo
Chicago over ATLANTA
Denver over SAN DIEGO
Last Week: 7-7
Season: 47-29
