The run was fun while it lasted, Aggies
The Waterloo of my sports prognosticating time here at this fine newspaper has been my affinity for Utah State once the NCAA Tournament rolls around. The past two years, I have written over a thousand combined words in two columns explaining why the Aggies would be the Cinderella of March Madness.
Both times, I’ve looked like a fool. In 2009, I picked USU all the way to the Elite Eight. The Aggies lost in the first round to Marquette by a point. Undaunted, I called for them to make a run to the Sweet 16 last year. They then lost in the first round to Texas A&M by 16 points in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times? As the great American philosopher Vince McMahon would say, you’ve got no chance in hell. I’m done with Utah State. I wish the Aggies, a 12-seed in the Southeast Region, all the best, but 2011’s Cinderella will be ... Bucknell.
The oldest basketball program in the nation, Bucknell has twice wreaked bracket havoc in the last seven years, upsetting Kansas as a 14-seed in 2005 and then Arkansas as a 9-seed in 2006. However, both times the Bison have failed to get over the hump in the second round. That will change this year.
The seventh-best 3-point and third-best free throw shooting team in the nation, Bucknell has eight players shooting over 75 percent from the free-throw line and four over 40 percent from behind the arc. They rebound well. They force turnovers. They can slow you down or speed you up. They score — an average of 70 points a game — and they defend, holding opponents to 63.4 points on average. They’ve won 10 straight and 19 of their last 20.
Simply put, the Bison have everything you need to make a run in March.
They open with 3-seed UConn, the team of the moment. The Huskies have Madison Square Garden’s newest icon in Kemba Walker and just won an astounding five games in five days to capture the Big East championship.
But, UConn’s great run is conveniently masking that it a) finished ninth in the Big East, b) had lost four of five games headed into the conference tournament and c) is very young, was never expected to be here and has a proclivity to become somewhat of a one-man band with a good deal of inconsistency behind Walker.
Plus, recent history tells us when a middle-of-the-road team makes an improbable conference tournament run and suddenly becomes a trendy favorite, things don’t pan out. Maryland in 2004, Syracuse in 2006, Pittsburgh in 2008 — all won their conference tourneys in dramatic and surprising fashion. All also didn’t make it out of the first weekend of the NCAAs.
I see that happening again. Bucknell’s Bryan Cohen, a two-time Patriot League defensive player of the year, will lock down Walker and allow guys like Mike Muscala and Bryson Johnson to pick apart the rest of the Huskies behind a shockingly partisan Bison crowd (Bucknell’s campus in Lewisburg, Pa., is only about three or so hours from Washington D.C., the site of the game, and the school has already sold out its allotment of tickets).
The script will be the same in the second round, either against an overrated Cincinnati team or a one-dimensional Missouri squad, sending the Bison home one of the only 16 teams left playing. The magic will end against San Diego State a few days later, but it’ll be a joyous exit.
The Bison are going to the Sweet 16. You heard it here first.
Time to buck-le up, America.