Florida, Georgia, USC in the thick of things
As we reach the halfway point of the season, the race for the Southeastern Conference's Eastern Division championship has become a three-horse race.
Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt aren't mathematically eliminated. But all three are realistically out of it. The East's representative in Atlanta for the 20th SEC Championship Game on Dec. 3 will be one of three teams — Florida, Georgia or South Carolina.
Here's what each team's outlook is as college football's stretch run begins.
South Carolina: If the Gamecocks win out, they are headed back to Atlanta for the second straight season. At 3-1 in the conference with four league games left, USC has two things going for it — no losses in the division and a head-to-head win over Georgia, which is currently tied with USC atop the East standings with a duplicate 3-1 SEC mark.
But winning out isn't as simple as it seems. It will be anything but for the Gamecocks, in fact. USC will play on the road three times in the next four weeks. The road swing concludes with a Nov. 5 trip to Arkansas, currently ranked No. 10 in the latest Associated Press poll.
The Razorbacks have been a nightmare for the Gamecocks the last two seasons. And despite the loss of Ryan Mallett at quarterback, Arkansas hasn't missed a beat with Tyler Wilson under center. The USC defense has improved considerably, but it remains to be seen how it would hold up against such an aerial attack.
Florida: The Gators, currently 2-2 in the SEC, have major problems at quarterback. That doesn't bode well, considering UF's game at Auburn on Saturday is a must-win. If the Gators lose, they are likely out of the race. But if UF wins on the Plains, everything changes.
After a bye week, the Oct. 29 meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville, Fla., at the game formerly known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will likely see UF favored — Florida has won three straight in the series and 12 of 15. That's followed by a date with Vanderbilt in the Swamp on Nov. 5.
If Florida wins all three of those games, giving UGA a crucial second SEC loss in the process, the Gators will travel to Columbia on Nov. 12 at 5-2 in the conference to face USC, whether it's 6-1 or 5-2 itself in the SEC, with the winner of the game clinching the East for the second straight fall.
Georgia: The biggest issue facing the Bulldogs as they try to win the East for the first time since 2007 is the lack of a tiebreaker against USC. Because of the Sept. 10 loss, UGA doesn't control its own destiny.
But the Bulldogs do have something going in their favor — UGA's remaining schedule is more favorable than those of Florida and USC.
The Bulldogs are at Vanderbilt on Saturday and will face Florida in Jacksonville on Oct. 29. But after that, UGA's final two SEC games against Kentucky and Auburn will come inside the friendly confines of Sanford Stadium. If the 'Dogs can win all four and USC loses at least once, Georgia is headed back to Atlanta.
So to recap: USC wins the East, no matter what Florida or Georgia does, if it can win out in league play and finish 7-1 in the SEC. Ditto for Florida. If the Gators win out, they are bound for the Georgia Dome. Georgia needs to win out and hope USC loses at least once (Arkansas?) to win the division.
Oh, and since so many are wondering: What would a three-way tie look like? Here are two possible scenarios.
Tie No. 1: Florida, UGA and USC all finish 6-2 in the conference, and Florida is responsible for both teams' second loss. Georgia is eliminated due to its head-to-head loss to the Gamecocks, while USC bows out due to its head-to-head loss to Florida. The Gators win the division.
Tie No. 2: Florida, UGA and USC all finish 5-3 in the conference. For the sake of brevity, assume Florida loses to USC, UGA loses to Auburn and Florida and USC loses to Mississippi State and Arkansas. Georgia is knocked out because of its head-to-head loss to Florida, and the Gators are eliminated because of a head-to-head loss to USC, sending the Gamecocks to Atlanta.