Reporters offer anecdotes, experiences from field
Chicago Sun-Times Washington bureau chief Lynn Sweet, New York Times political correspondent Jeff Zeleney and Washington Post political correspondent Dan Balz were the featured guests of the public panel discussion at Gambrell Hall, hosted by the political science department of the College of Arts and Sciences.
After sharing anecdotes from the campaign trail in S.C., from Citadel cadets manning Rick Santorum's phone bank to Rick Perry borrowing a trooper's pocketknife to cut a sandwich, the analysts shared their perspectives on who to watch in Saturday's election and took questions from the audience.
Following Monday's Fox News debate at Myrtle Beach, the analysts agreed that the dynamic battle to watch in South Carolina is between favored "Massachusetts Moderate" Mitt Romney and the more traditional "Georgia Republican" Newt Gingrich, who Balz said had his best debate since December on Monday night. While Romney maintains his lead in the polls, Gingrich has been closed the gap to just ten points behind, and a surprise win in S.C. could be a major turning point in the campaign, said Zeleney.
"Victory for [Romney] could end the nomination, yet we see a reluctance to embrace Romney," Balz said. "Even if he's the candidate most likely to win against Obama, he's not authentically conservative."
According to the analysts, it has been a tough week for the Romney campaign, as the Massachusetts governor caved to pressure Monday night to release his tax return information.
However, where the $375,000 he earned in speaking fees and his "probable" 15 percent tax rate may distance the multi-millionaire from middle-class voters, Romney's campaign has compensated with its advertising strategy and organization. An example Zeleney pointed to was the Romney campaign's use of automated phone messages that play former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum offering, in his own voice, his endorsement of Romney in 2008.
"He's got more going on beneath the surface than we've ever seen," Balz said of Romney's advertising scheme.
The analysts also gave a nod to comedian Stephen Colbert's false run and satirical super PAC, which ran its first ad in the Palmetto State this week calling Mitt Romney a serial killer. According to Sweet, the move is an example of the growing influence of nontraditional media over those who don't watch the evening news.
"He's done a fantastic job of explaining the absurdity of super PACs," Zeleney said. "All the candidates agree the super PAC situation is not ideal, and he's presented it in a way that can really move public debate on this."
Funding controversies aside, the analysts agreed that the results of Saturday's primary will be more indicative of national trends than were the results of Iowa and New Hampshire, which are less populous states.
"One of the values of South Carolina is that ... people here aren't paying as much attention to the ins and outs of the campaign," Zeleney said. "They're much more like normal voters across the country."