The Daily Gamecock

Demographic shift will affect GOP

Growing minority vote will lean polls to left Read More

 

The death of conservatism in the United States is impending. While the news media and popular entertainment have pushed nontraditional values for over fifty years, and the majority of public schools advocate a progressive agenda, these are not the only factors influencing the current political makeup. Of monumental importance, are the ethno-cultural transitions taking place in the United States. In May, CNN reported that for the first time in American history minority births have overtaken white births by a margin of 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent. Under current trends, by the late 2030s or early 2040s Caucasians may be a minority in the US.

The fact is that minorities tend to favor left-leaning policies and have since Republicans first gave freed slaves the right to vote in the South under Reconstruction. The trend, however, has become more pronounced. While Ronald Reagan won 9 percent of the black vote in 1984 and George Bush won 8 percent in 2000, John McCain received no more than 4 percent. Hispanics are slightly more evenly divided, as 31 percent of them voted for both Bush (in 2000) and McCain (in 2008). Though constituting a small percentage of the American populace, Asians favored President Barack Obama (62 percent) as opposed to McCain.

Support among Caucasians for conservative candidates has not fluctuated much over the past 40 years. To display significance of the shift in demographics, John McCain received a larger percentage of the white vote in 2008 than George W. Bush did in 2000, yet McCain still lost the popular vote.
As the November elections approach, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed Obama claiming 94 percent of the black vote and Mitt Romney earning a whopping zero percent. According to the same poll, the Hispanic margin remains nearly unchanged, as support for the Democrats in that group is a commanding two-to-one advantage over Romney. With minorities composing nearly 37 percent of the U.S. population, such overwhelming support for the Democrats could prove fatal to the Republican candidate.

While the Republican Party makes valiant attempts to attract the minority vote, the media and those on the left label such outreach as pandering. To an extent, they are correct. Conservative values are not based upon race, but rather on traditions and values, particularly those historically embraced by a predominately Christian and Western civilization. While it would be erroneous to suggest that all liberals are not Christian, it would not be incorrect to state that a large number of minorities do not hold fast to Western culture. For example, many Hispanics and Asians retain their own culture and traditions. As long as the left can succeed in associating conservative principles with one particular culture, demographic trends do not bode well for the Republican Party.


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