The 86th Academy Awards are this Sunday on ABC at 8:30 p.m. “Gravity” will probably take home the most awards because it will win most of the technical awards, but “12 Years a Slave” looks like it will snatch up the top prize of the night: Best Picture. If this critic were voting, “Blue Is the Warmest Color” would sweep up many statues. Sadly, it was not nominated for anything.
Best Picture
Nominees:
12 Years a Slave (Blu-ray, DVD on Monday)
American Hustle (AMC Dutch Square 14, Carmike Wynnsong 10)
Captain Phillips (Blu-ray, DVD, St. Andrews Cinemas)
Dallas Buyers Club (Blu-ray, DVD, Carmike 14)
Gravity (Blu-ray, DVD, Carmike 14)
Her (Carmike 14)
Nebraska (Blu-ray, DVD)
Philomena (Carmike 14)
The Wolf of Wall Street (DVD and Blu-ray on March 25, Regal Columbia Cinema 7, Regal Columbiana Grande Stadium 12)
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Should win: Gravity
The Best Picture race seems to be neck-and-neck between “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity”, with “American Hustle” as a third-place dark horse. “12 Years” is the serious, “important” film that is hard to watch, while “Gravity” is a visually stunning, technically revolutionary popcorn thrill ride. “12 Years” won Best Drama at the Golden Globes and the British Academy Film Award for Best Picture. Twenty years ago, a film as dark, depressing and violent as “12 Years” would not have won Best Picture, but recent winners such as “The Departed,” “No Country for Old Men” and “The Hurt Locker” have proven that maybe the academy’s members are more willing to give difficult films their votes.
Trivia: If “Gravity” wins, it will be the Best Picture winner with the shortest running time, at 91 minutes. It would also be the first science fiction film to win. If “12 Years a Slave” wins, it will be the first Best Picture winner directed by an African-American.
Best Director
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Could win: Steve McQueen
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón
Last year, Ang Lee won Best Director for his technically complex 3-D film, “Life of Pi.” It seems very likely that Alfonso Cuarón will win this year for his visual 3-D marvel, “Gravity.” He had not directed a film since 2006’s “Children of Men” because he took more than four and a half years to make “Gravity.” The only other director that has a chance is Steve McQueen for his beautifully rendered, but unflinching portrait of American slavery, but the technical bravado of “Gravity” will make Cuarón the winner.
Trivia: If Cuarón wins, it will be the first Best Director-winning film in which over half of the film features only one actor on screen.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should win: Bruce Dern
Going off recent award shows, it is looking good for Matthew McConaughey. His recent career resurgence will likely earn him his first Oscar. Leonardo DiCaprio won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical for his ferocious performance in “The Wolf of Wall Street,” but some of the older Academy members found the film too racy and profane. Bruce Dern is a veteran character actor who arguably gave the best performance of his career in “Nebraska,” but the changes McConaughey has made to his physical body and his body of work recently will earn him the Oscar. It also does not hurt that he is currently on HBO’s “True Detective,” a show many people consider one of the best television series in years.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Cate Blanchett
Of the four acting categories, Best Actress is the biggest lock of the night. Cate Blanchett is bound to win for her performance as the alcoholic, mentally unstable socialite who comes crashing down into reality after she loses her wealth. Even with the recent Woody Allen/Mia Farrow sex abuse scandal ongoing, academy members should not wrap Blanchett into that family battle. If anyone could pull a huge upset, it would be Amy Adams, who received her fourth nomination and her first for Best Actress.
Trivia: If Blanchett wins, it will be the sixth performance by a woman in a Woody Allen film to win an acting Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Will win: Jared Leto
Could win: Michael Fassbender
Should win: Barkhad Abdi
Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor are pretty much the same deal. Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto have been winning nearly every award in their respective categories at recent award shows. Barkhad Adbi, who had never acted before “Captain Phillps,” should win for his commanding performance as a Somali pirate hijacking a cargo ship led by Tom Hanks.
Trivia: Leto had not acted in a film for four years when he agreed to be in “Dallas Buyers Club.”
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Lupita Nyong’o
The most uncertain of the acting categories this year is Best Supporting Actress. The two lead contenders are Lupita Nyong’o for her heartbreaking performance as the slave Patsey in “12 Years” and Jennifer Lawrence as the delightful but deceptively sly Rosalyn in “American Hustle.” Lawrence recently won Best Actress for David O. Russell’s previous film, “Silver Linings Playbook,” so Nyong’o will probably win her first Oscar for her first screen performance.
Trivia: If Lawrence wins, she will be the youngest actress to have won two Oscars. She is 23.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Could win: Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope (Philomena)
Should win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Spike Jonze (Her)
Could win: Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Should win: Bob Nelson (Nebraska)
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty
Should win: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Animated Feature Film
Will win: Frozen
Could win: The Wind Rises
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: The Act of Killing
Could win: 20 Feet from Stardom