In Sunday's AFC Championship game, quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will square off for perhaps the final time in their storied rivalry. Instead of looking forward to the game, let us reflect back. Who was the greatest quarterback of their era? Brady or Manning?
This is hardly a new question. It is one that sports fans have furiously debated for the greater part of the last decade. This isn’t really a Bird versus Magic situation, where both athletes were sworn enemies. In its nature, it is far more like the classic Beatles or Stones debate. Both represent pairs of once-in-a-generation phenomenons whose success somehow overlapped in the same small window.
There is just one catch — the traditional support for each candidate is extremely predictable. Brady fans will point to four rings and postseason triumphs. Supporters of Manning will direct you to the regular season record books, as the 14-time Pro Bowler holds the career mark for both passing yards and touchdowns.
The nature of these arguments lends itself to subjective reasoning. It really comes down to how you weigh regular season compared to postseason production.
So let us take a more scientific approach at this debate. How have Brady and Manning fared head-to-head? Brady fans will immediately point to his 11-5 head-to-head career record. Before we use that as the trump card, let us acknowledge two things. First, there is a certain amount of luck that goes into winning a football game. Wins and losses aren’t necessarily the most predictive measure in a small sample. Second, quarterbacks don’t have control over how their own defenses perform.
One quarter, one play or even one blown call can make or break the outcome of a game. Instead of looking at the simple record between Brady and Manning, let us use the Pythagorean win-loss expectancy model to show a normalized version of those 16 games. Before the math scares you off, just know that Pythagorean win expectancy can easily be calculated. It is simply the number of points scored by one team squared divided by the total number of points between both teams squared. In this model, we are going to only look at how Manning and Brady controlled their respective offenses in games against each other.
So in total, Brady’s offenses have averaged 29.9 points in head-to-head matchups, and Manning's averaged 24.5. When you throw those numbers in the formula and multiply the win expectancy by the 16 games they have played, Brady gets about 9.6 expected wins to Manning’s 6.4. Even this regressed model indicates Brady as the clear winner in head-to-head performance.
This model is far from perfect, but it certainly does offer a different way to look at the debate objectively without turning into the tiresome rings-versus-records argument.
Putting the numbers aside, this should be a fun matchup. It will probably be more about how two elite defenses play than it will be about Brady and Manning. Still, now is a good time to appreciate their greatness. Chapter 17 could very well be the end of their story.
So, Brady or Manning? Who you got?
Vote for your choice on twitter @TDG_Sports
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