Senator Rand Paul had a big week.
The Patriot Act was slightly curtailed, in no small part due to his efforts in the Senate. Senator Lindsey Graham entered the presidential race in large part to rebuke Paul’s foreign policy views. But, of course, those events were in and of themselves only the culmination of years of developments.
Paul was born in Pennsylvania, but his family moved to Texas when he was still young. While there, his father, Ron Paul, won a seat in the House of Representatives. Ron Paul is relatively famous for being the most high profile libertarian in recent American history. In the 2012 election he did reasonably well in terms of the popular vote but the combination of a media blackout, little ability to expand his base and his many non-mainstream views kept him far away from winning the nomination. Speaking of those views, Rand Paul picked up many of them while growing up with, working for and campaigning for his father.
In college he was active in the Young Conservatives at Baylor University. That’s far from the most interesting organization he was a part of. In his undergraduate years Paul joined a secret society known as NoZe that effectively existed to create headaches for the school administrators. Most infamously he was involved in a bizarre incident where he and a friend abducted and blindfolded a female friend, tried to force her to use marijuana and then took her to a rural creek and made her swear allegiance to Aqua Buddha. Paul has denied there was anything illegal about the incident and that it was anything other than a prank. And, hey, who hasn’t absconded with someone to compel them to swear allegiance to Hydro Buddhism?
Paul went on to study ophthalmology at Duke and soon went into the field as a career. At some point he moved to Kentucky, married and started a family. He also dabbled a little in conservative activism in the 1990s and early 2000s, but he never took off until the Tea Party came to town.
When a senator declined to run for re-election, Paul seized upon the moment of the nascent Tea Party and ran for office. He won the race and became a founding member of the Tea Party caucus in the Senate. Paul also established his differences from his conventionally libertarian father. Senator Paul is no social liberal and opposes abortion except when the mother’s life is in danger, believes states have the right to ban same-sex marriage and opposes the legalization of recreational pot.
He’s still more libertarian than the average Republican candidate, though. He quickly ran into conflict in the Senate over his budget proposal’s cuts to the military and elimination of foreign aid, including support to Israel. He gained fame filibustering the administration’s drone policy and NSA practices. In the process he earned the ire of hawks like Lindsey Graham, prompting many to do as much as they can to prevent Paul from becoming the party’s nominee.
Paul might have the most loyal base of any Republican candidate, but his ability to win will depend upon his ability to expand beyond it and avoid the trap his father ran in to. That currently is not looking good for him. Paul has not broken a polling average of 15 percent in over a year. While it’s possible that he could get crossover support from Democrats not polled, the entrance of Sen. Bernie Sanders has stolen away many of the young and disillusioned voters that Paul would be courting in the party.
Paul could theoretically win by stealing away a majority of the Tea Party vote, but he runs into issues there quickly. While Paul might be more economically conservative than his rivals, most people on the far right would be skeptical of voting for a pseudo-isolationist when they could elect another one of their heroes like Ted Cruz or Dr. Ben Carson. Paul’s forceful advocacy against mass-surveillance might be able to present a clear case for Tea Partiers to follow him, but it’s unclear how much it will actually change things. He’s tried pivoting to the center, but it’s unlikely he could attract much establishment support away from Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or Scott Walker.
His one ace-in-the-hole might be his stances on the criminal justice system. Paul has routinely spoken out against police militarization, mass incarceration, the confiscation of non-violent felon’s voting rights and civil forfeiture. He openly acknowledges that the war on drugs has disproportionately impacted minorities and has introduced many bills to try and reform the system. His efforts present a tangible benefit that real, small-government policies could give to minority communities and disadvantaged groups. But, in the post-Ferguson era where unshakeable support for police and disdain for “black-on-black crime” have become pervasive throughout the party, any support he gains from traditionally non-Republican groups could be lost in the party itself.
Still, if enough Republicans want to see real change in the party after losing the popular vote in five of the six elections, Rand Paul isn’t unappealing. His stances on the justice system and immigration reform could help the party appeal to minorities, he could continue to keep the party intact with a platform of economic and social conservatism and maybe backing away from more disastrous foreign wars could help the party’s standing with the public. It’s conceivable that he could push that message to win over a majority of primary voters, but it’s not terribly probable. Paul’s unorthodoxy forces him to rely mainly upon the support of true believers committed to his side. While he certainly has more disciples than Aqua Buddha, at present they are far from a majority of the party.