Republicans' mishaps, loss of supporters give Democrats competitive edge back
Despite his recent assurance in a CBS interview, Mitt Romney’s campaign needs a turnaround. Although Romney has a respectable portion of the Electoral College predicted as being locked down, 191 votes in fact, his remaining path toward the necessary 270 has come to an uncomfortable bottleneck. President Barack Obama’s superior campaign strategy has bullied Romney into a corner and clinched them a further 20 electoral votes after Romney’s concession of Pennsylvania, marking a significant loss for the Republicans that only places more pressure on their end game as Election Day inches closer. The Democrats are close to assuming the victory formation unless the Republicans can manage to find some kind of rhythm and focal point to drive forward, but there’s no denying the doubt regarding capability that has accompanied Romney’s campaign in the recent months.
Nine swing states remain after surrendering Pennsylvania, including the crown jewels that Romney’s campaign will be forced to go all in for: Ohio and Florida. The two states have been remarkably consistent as bellwethers of recent election history. Unfortunately for Romney, despite Obama having a sizable lead in both states, he has no choice but to leverage his campaign’s fate on the critically important pair.
It’s this kind of action and reaction that indicates who’s truly in the driver’s seat of this election season. Although recent polls in Ohio reveal voters side with Romney’s approach to the national deficit and overactive federal government, Obama still holds a competitive edge in the state. Romney has lost his support in the older voters, and his once-captured middle-class votes are dwindling as steadily as his favorability. Romney will continue to struggle in the state considering Ohio has had one of the biggest improvements in employment as a result of Obama’s car industry bailout. At this point, it looks as if the president’s bedrock of advocates is too tough to crack in the Buckeye state, though his fate in Florida still remains to be determined.
In what was once considered an environment eager and receptive to Romney, the Republicans have seen a large decrease in favorability since their convention. Romney does have a three-point lead over Obama in male voters, but Obama’s commanding 20-point lead in female voters is staggering. Romney had plenty to work against Obama with in the state, including a terrible 8.8-percent unemployment rate, but he simply hasn’t exploited his opponent’s weaknesses appropriately to earn back support.
Granted, Obama must rally up a strong voting class to win again, but there’s no denying the poor positioning of Romney. The numbers say it all: 53 to 43 percent lead for Obama in Ohio, the state no Republican has ever won the presidency without. Similarly in Florida, Obama upholds a 53 to 44 lead. Romney needs nothing less than an ace in the hole and a flawless finish to emerge victorious on Nov. 6, but with his history of gaffes and missteps, his fate may already be sealed.