Friday afternoon, former Texas governor Rick Perry announced the end of his presidential bid. I feel bad for Perry; he was a qualified candidate and never seemed entirely disagreeable. But he picked a terrible year for another run — he’s too boring for 2016.
Between the two parties, there are 21 legitimate candidates for president. Perry’s departure has compelled me to sort through this field and find the true contenders and pretenders of 2016 race.
Celebrity candidates are currently dominating the polls and news cycles, namely Donald Trump and Ben Carson. The key for both candidates is to keep the momentum, which won’t be easy. 2016 could be the year the American voter finally bucks the establishment party candidates, but history says otherwise.
The mainstream candidates have remained the same since the spring. Jeb Bush remains a Republican Party favorite, especially with his hoarded wealth of campaign funds. Ted Cruz and his tea party support are also in for the long run, but it’s doubtful that he ever secures majority support.
Despite scandal and sliding poll numbers, Hillary Clinton is still the easy favorite for the Democratic nomination. Her biggest vulnerability is arguably Joe Biden; last week I detailed the potential consequences of Biden joining the field.
Outside of the big names, there are plenty of wild cards. The first name that jumps to mind is Bernie Sanders, who is leading a far-left liberal revolution in a push for the Democratic nomination. Sanders was already leading Clinton in New Hampshire before gaining the lead in Iowa this week. It remains to be seen how Sanders will fare outside of the early primary states, but he refuses to be ignored.
In the GOP, there’s a plethora of mid-tier candidates. At one point in February, Scott Walker was polling at 25 percent support. He’s since fallen to five percent, but he’s by no means finished. Walker’s no stranger to tough campaigns, and early polling numbers are always deceptive. Many of these same principles also apply to Marco Rubio, who has seen his support fluctuate over the summer.
A true dark horse for the GOP is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. One of the most vocal anti-Trump candidates in the field, Fiorina has experienced something of a surge in support. Fiorina was polling outside the top 10 candidates in August, but since the first debate she’s climbed considerably. A strong performance at the September 16 debate could help her gain some strong momentum.
Outside of these candidates are the real long shots. While Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee will get some hyper-conservative support, they’re both fighting for control over a fragment population already dominated by Ted Cruz. Chris Christie and Rand Paul have chronically low approval numbers but their debates with Trump are entertaining at least.
I’ll leave you with the longer-than-long shots in the 2016 field. For the GOP there's Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore. For the Democrats there's Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb. These candidates should follow the lead of Rick Perry and just drop out.