This season of college basketball has provided a surplus of upsets, resulting in a great amount of parity among the top teams in the nation. Villanova, the top-ranked team in Monday’s AP Top 25, has racked up three losses on the season, on par with Southern Methodist University, who is ineligible for the postseason, and fellow mid-majors Xavier and Dayton. It seems that a top team is knocked off at least once each week, and there is no dominant favorite heading into March as there have been in past seasons, nor is there a team chasing perfection as Kentucky did last season.
The lack of a true dominant team is expected to lead to one of the best NCAA Tournaments in recent memory, as the field is completely wide open. Perennial powers Duke and Kentucky each have six losses already, and North Carolina dropped consecutive games earlier in the month. Michigan State looked like the cream of the crop in the early-going, but a three-game slide in conference play and a road loss to Purdue has them tied for eighth in the newest poll. Because of Coach Tom Izzo’s track record, the Spartans are expected to turn it around in the postseason, but because of their inability to consistently beat competitive conference opponents, they are far from a safe bet.
The Big 12 boasts two of the country’s top three teams in Kansas and Oklahoma, in addition to having West Virginia at the back end of the top ten. The Jayhawks have topped the Sooners in two incredibly tight games this season, including a triple-overtime thriller in January. Both teams have experienced star players, and there might not be a better player in the land than Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield. The senior is an elite shooter from beyond the arc, and he converts over 90 percent of his free throws. In a sport generally dominated by underclassmen, Kansas is led by senior Perry Ellis and juniors Frank Mason III and Wayne Selden Jr. The experience of these two contenders should serve them well in March, as many teams are forced to rely on inexperienced freshmen.
Because of their Big East schedule, top-ranked Villanova does not have many quality wins, and they missed opportunities to boost their resume, dropping games to Oklahoma, Virginia and Providence, and their best win came in blowout fashion against an Xavier team that was downright outplayed by Creighton over the weekend. Highly-ranked mid-majors haven’t fared well in recent years, however, including the Wildcats, who were defeated by NC State in the Round of 32 last season. Two seasons ago, an undefeated Wichita State team from the Missouri Valley Conference was a top seed in its region, but they too were upset in the Round of 32, falling to eventual runner-up Kentucky. The season before that, it was top-seeded Gonzaga carrying the mid-major flag when they fell in the Round of 32 to Wichita State. Based on that trend over the last three years, it is easy to believe that Villanova could meet a similar fate this March if they are rated as one of the nation’s best.
College basketball has been thrilling throughout the season, as there have been few full slates of games that haven’t included an upset. As we head toward a postseason that is notoriously known for providing upsets and classic games, this March should bring an abundance of thrillers, and college basketball fans everywhere should be giddy with anticipation.