We've heard this before. Last summer, Tennessee was a trendy SEC Championship pick and plenty of sportswriters considered them a threat to make the College Football Playoff. For those who have forgotten what happened last fall, let me remind you.
The Vols blew leads in four of their first seven games, including excruciating last-minute losses against Florida and Alabama. Tennessee's only quality win came at home over Georgia, when the Bulldogs' star running back was injured on the first play. And as I'm sure you Gamecock fans all remember, the Vols were one Jerell Adams fumble away from trailing against South Carolina late in the fourth quarter at Neyland Stadium.
I get it. Tennessee returns nearly its entire starting lineup. But let's not forget that it's the same lineup that blew those four leads last season while failing to meet expectations again.
On paper, the Vols do look pretty good. Quarterback Joshua Hobbs is one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC (which isn't saying much these days), and running back Jalen Hurd figures to have a strong season. There is plenty of talent on the defense as well.
On the other side, Tennessee has some problems. Dobbs doesn't have a go-to receiver as no returner caught more than 38 passes last season. Kicker Aaron Medley isn't consistent from beyond 40 yards, and even though Hurd is a massive running back with solid speed, he only averaged 4.7 yards per carry, nearly two whole yards less than backup Alvin Kamara, who played enough to make that stat significant.
Admittedly, this is a talented team, and the Vols have the benefit of playing in a weak SEC East. However, that four-game stretch in October when Tennessee takes on Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama in a row is beyond tough for any group, especially one as unproven as this.
But despite all this, Tennessee is ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll and received a first place vote in the Coaches' Poll. There is an actual college football coach who thinks Tennessee is the best football team in the country. This is a team that hasn't won 10 games since 2007 and hasn't won 11 since 2001. Not to mention having lost to Florida (who has been mediocre a few times in the last decade) every season since 2004.
Everyone likes to make bold predictions, and maybe that's why teams like Tennessee and USC are consistently ranked high in the preseason before their mediocre play drops them out of the rankings. The Vols have talent; they really do. But to expect a team that was so bad at holding leads last season to overcome somewhat of a lack of an offensive identity and make it through the gantlet in October to finish as a top 10 team is just absurd.
It's time to stop doing this every year. Tennessee will be good. They might win the SEC East. But the Vols' ceiling is probably 10 wins and something like the Citrus Bowl. Because as Steve Spurrier always said, "you can't spell Citrus without U-T."