Friday marks the 2015 MLB trade deadline, and so far, we’ve already seen a few high-profile players on the move.
Each year, teams seem to follow the same perplexing pattern with little success, and frankly that bugs me. The trend is for struggling teams to unload their best players while contenders seek to bolster their lineups with big name players that, at least in recent years, have done little to help their new teams.
It confuses me — a backseat manager — because I’ve seen very little success from this trade deadline strategy. Perennial bottom-feeders often show life at the beginning of the season, begin to slow down, and jump ship just before the deadline by unloading a promising starter or prospect.
The Oakland A’s made the playoffs the past three seasons. However, the struggling A’s have already shopped ace Scott Kazmir, within the division no less. Half a season of struggles have them in “sell” mode. Basically, they’ve made the conscious decision to throw in the towel and start fresh.
Kazmir was one of the few bright spots for the A’s with a 2.24 ERA and 104 strikeouts. Now he is gone, and the A’s will be resigned to waiting a few years before returning to the playoffs.
Six of the last seven World Series MVPs were acquired in some way other than a trade. The one exception is 2011 World Series MVP David Freese, who joined the Cardinals in a trade following a 2007 stint with the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm.
Basically, big-time midseason moves haven’t paid off in the past few seasons. The vast majority of recent World Series winners were relatively quiet in the midseason trade market. In fact, the 2013 Boston Red Sox and the 2014 San Francisco Giants combined to make two midseason trades — both involving pitcher Jake Peavy. In case anyone is wondering, Peavy went a combined 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in the 2013 and 2014 postseasons.
The Giants have won three of the past five World Series with a core group of players hand picked by GM Brian Sabean through the draft. Three-time series winners such as catcher Buster Posey, pitchers Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner have been supplemented new faces to continue the team’s dominance.
It is worth noting however that San Francisco did pick up outfielder Hunter Pence minutes before the 2012 deadline. Many experts scoffed at the move a year after the midseason acquisition of Carlos Beltran failed. Pence ended up hitting just .219 in the regular season but helped inspire the team that postseason on their way to another World Series win.
Of course there are exceptions. However, when I read articles about top teams rumored to make drastic moves, I get skeptical. The old moniker of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” still applies. If the Dodgers end up pulling the trigger and trade Yasiel Puig for a third ace pitcher, they’ll regret it. If the Tigers or Orioles decide to go into “sell” mode, they’ll damage next season’s chances.
Frankly, I don’t believe in big-time midseason trades. They usually end up throwing off the chemistry of contenders or making mid-level teams look like quitters. This year is no different. If a midseason trade ends up working out immediately for anyone involved, I’ll be surprised. We have three more months of baseball, so only time will tell.