The Daily Gamecock

Week 1 SEC Predictions

Thursday Sept. 1

Appalachian State at No. 9 Tennessee (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

The Volunteers open the season at No. 9 in the Preseason AP Poll, marking their highest ranking since 2005. This season the Vols are poised to make a run for Atlanta and the SEC Championship under Head coach Butch Jones. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs is back after leading the SEC’s third-ranked offense to 35.2 points per game a season ago. On the other side, Appalachian State is not the typical week one cupcake opponent. The Mountaineers are coming off an 11-2 season and feature a deep backfield led by senior running back Marcus Cox. Tennessee cannot afford to look ahead to Virginia Tech next week or they could fall victim to the Mountaineers, who, in 2007, went into “The Big House” in Ann Arbor and upset then No. 5 Michigan 34-32.

The Pick: Tennessee 31, Appalachian State 17

Tennessee may struggle to put up points against a Mountaineers defense that ranked first in the Sun Belt a year ago. Do not be surprised to see this one close in the second half, but Dobbs and the Volunteers should prevail.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This one in Nashville opens up the SEC slate for 2016. The Gamecocks, led by new head coach Will Muschamp, are looking to improve their 3-9 record from a year ago. There are still a lot of unknowns for South Carolina. The quarterback battle continues with senior Perry Orth and true freshman quarterbacks Brandon McIlwain and Jake Bentley. Orth brings experience after starting eight games last season, while McIlwain is a dual threat with ability to run and throw the ball efficiently. Bentley decided in April to forgo his senior season of high school and has been competing for the starting job in fall practice. Derek Mason will begin his third season as head coach for Vanderbilt and looks to avenge several close losses from last season, including a 19-10 loss to the Gamecocks in Columbia. The Commodores return eight starters on both sides of the football and will rely heavily on their strong defense, which should be tough against the run. Junior running back Ralph Webb will likely have to carry the load on offense.

The Pick: South Carolina 17, Vanderbilt 13

An offensive struggle is likely, so expect a low-scoring game. Look for receivers Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards to create some big plays for the Gamecocks and lead them to an opening victory.

Saturday Sept. 3

South Alabama at Mississippi State (12:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Perhaps nobody is more ready to start the new season than Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen. It was a rough offseason to say the least after the controversial one-game suspension of freshman Jeffrey Simmons, who punched a woman. In addition to the turbulent offseason, the Bulldogs also lost quarterback Dak Prescott to the NFL. The battle to be his replacement is down to three, junior Damian Williams, sophomore Nick Fitzgerald and redshirt freshman Nick Tiano. The Bulldogs were picked to finish in the cellar of the SEC West during media days. South Alabama is coming off a 5-7 season under head coach Joey Jones. With six returning starters on offense, the Jaguars will need to develop a passing game, which they lacked last season. On the defensive side of the ball, they must generate a pass rush, as their 11 sacks in 2015 ranked 125th in the FBS.

The Pick: Mississippi State 34, South Alabama 10

The Bulldogs defense may be even better than it was last season. The offense may suffer a setback with the loss of Prescott but will turn to senior running back Brandon Holloway to lead them over the Jaguars.

Missouri at West Virginia (12:00 p.m. ET, FS1)

It’s a new era for Missouri football. Gary Pinkel decided to step down as head coach due to health problems, forcing the Tigers to go through their first head coaching change since 2001. Missouri’s all-time winningest coach will be succeeded by Barry Odom, a former linebacker for the Tigers from 1996 to 1999. He and first year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel will look to speed up the offense that will likely be led by sophomore quarterback Drew Lock. The stronghold will continue to be their defense, which returns five of their six leading tacklers. A year ago, they finished fifth in the nation in pass defense, and look to be just as good this season. West Virginia will have a defense filled with former backups becoming veteran starters. 

The Pick: West Virginia 24, Missouri 17

Missouri’s defense will keep them in the game, but the lack of big plays on offense may spell doom for the Tigers. The Mountaineers will look to be better at closing out games than a year ago when they faced major offensive struggles in the fourth quarter.

No. 5 LSU vs. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Les Miles and the Tigers return 17 starters, tied with Tennessee for most in the SEC. Leonard Fournette is ready to begin his Heisman campaign and will undoubtedly be a strong force against opposing defenses. Quarterback Brandon Harris must be effective with the football and avoid turnovers in order to improve from last season. For LSU to have success, they must let Harris be a quarterback and throw the ball down the field occasionally. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda implemented a new 3-4 scheme for the Tigers defense this offseason and is ready to test it against the Badgers. Wisconsin looks to have a vastly improved offensive line with a lot of returning experience. A season ago, the rushing game was a struggle. New defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox has only been left five returning starters and will look to create his own identity for the Badger defense.

The Pick: LSU 30, Wisconsin 14

Expect the Badgers defense to suffer major setbacks after key losses and Fournette to rush for over 100 yards in an opening victory for the Tigers.

No. 16 UCLA at Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight will take over an Aggies offense that even relented to trying a two-quarterback scheme a season ago. A young, inexperienced offensive line may be a problem, but the receiving core should be a bright spot. Christian Kirk, Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil and Josh Reynolds make up a group that is arguably the best in the SEC, if not the country. On defense, the Aggies are lead by preseason All-American defensive end Myles Garrett, who led the SEC with 13 sacks in 2015. Behind Garrett is a secondary that ranked fourth in the FBS in total passing yards allowed last season and returns all of its safeties. The Bruins have high expectations in the Pac-12. New offensive coordinator Kennedy Polamalu replaces Noel Mazzone, who took the same position at Texas A&M over the offseason. Polamalu’s offense is expected to utilize their deep backfield and control the game on the ground. A stable defense should help the Bruins get the ball back quickly for their offense and win the time of possession battle more often than not.

The Pick: UCLA 42, Texas A&M 30

The UCLA rushing game will be too much for an A&M defense that struggled against the run a year ago. This game could become a shootout if Trevor Knight gets in sync with his receivers but the experienced Bruins should take the win.

Louisiana Tech at Arkansas (4:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

This season, the Razorbacks lose the SEC’s third-leading passer Brandon Allen and third-leading rusher Alex Collins. Allen’s successor at quarterback is likely to be his younger brother Austin. Do not expect him to put up the same type of numbers as Brandon, but with the Hogs returning four of their five leading receivers from a year ago, he has weapons. Bret Bielema’s offense will look to keep the ball on the ground and dominate the time of possession battle like they did a year ago. Running backs Rawleigh Williams III and Kody Walker will get most of the touches, but do not be surprised to see the talented true freshman Devwah Whaley make an impact in a huge way. The defense returns an SEC-most nine starters but struggled majorly last season. The experience should lead to improvement for the Razorbacks, but it will take big gains to compete in a ferocious SEC West division. Louisiana Tech is coming off their second consecutive nine-win season. However, the losses of former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel and running back Kenneth Dixon will be tough to overcome. Do not expect the Skip Holtz led Bulldogs to be able to compete with the Hogs with only two returning starters on the defense.

The Pick: Arkansas 45, Louisiana Tech 13

The Razorbacks are simply too strong for the Bulldogs. Arkansas’s big offensive line will carve numerous running lanes for the backs on the way to a victory.

No. 18 Georgia vs. No. 22 North Carolina (Georgia Dome) (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Expectations for Georgia are high, but there are a lot of unknowns as Kirby Smart begins his first season as head coach. The quarterback battle is down to senior Greyson Lambert and true freshman Jacob Eason. Lambert is likely to get the start, having played in 28 games in his career. Eason appears to be the more talented of the two and could be the starter by the end of the season if named the backup. At running back, Nick Chubb is set to be the starter after fully recovering from a knee injury suffered against Tennessee last season. The defense, which ranked eighth in scoring and first in passing defense in the FBS a season ago, returns six starters. The departure of five members of the front seven has left the Bulldogs defense with numerous holes to fill. North Carolina returns a solid pass defense but must improve the run defense to be competitive with Georgia’s talented backs. The Tar Heels had the ninth ranked scoring offense in the FBS last season but suffer a key loss in quarterback Marquise Williams. Junior Mitch Trubisky takes over the position and could be just as dynamic as Williams. If he lives up to the hype, watch for the Heels to win the ACC Coastal division.

The Pick: North Carolina 41, Georgia 38

This is my upset pick. Junior running back Elijah Hood will exploit the youth of the Georgia front seven behind a very effective Tar Heel line. The Heels defensive line returns most key players but must show improvement to pull of the upset.

Massachusetts at No. 25 Florida (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

The defending SEC East champion Gators are ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 for the first time since 2013. Head coach Jim McElwain has four new quarterbacks for this upcoming season. Luke Del Rio, son of Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio, was named the starter last Thursday. The redshirt sophomore will look to improve a passing game that struggled a year ago. Sophomore receiver Antonio Callaway will be a big target for Del Rio. The Gators defense was solid again last season, ranking eight in the FBS in total defense. Jalen Tabor is viewed as an elite cornerback. The defense could be even better than a year ago and will remain the security for an uncertain offense. Massachusetts failed to win more than three games in its first four FBS seasons. This season the offense loses starting quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and leading wide receiver Tajae Sharpe. On defense, only three starters return for the Minutemen. They will receive a much-needed boost in senior safety Khary Bailey-Smith, who is set to return from a knee injury after only playing in two games a season ago.

The Pick: Florida 48, Massachusetts 6

The Gators should roll over UMass, who enters as an independent after leaving the MAC. While this game doesn’t present a large challenge, Florida needs to build confidence in the offense before kicking off conference play against Kentucky next week.

Southern Miss at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Kentucky returns nine starters on offense but loses quarterback Patrick Towles who transferred to Boston College. Head coach Mark Stoops will turn to redshirt sophomore Drew Barker to lead his offense. New offensive coordinator Eddie Gran plans to utilize a pro-style offense that will allow Barker to spread the ball around the field. The rest of the offense should be improved from a year ago and return four starting junior receivers. The defense has holes to fill with only four returning starters and six of their top seven tacklers moving on. Sophomore defensive end Denzil Ware will look to put pressure on the quarterback. The Wildcats struggled with this a year ago, only coming up with 17 sacks placing them last in the SEC. Southern Miss is coming off a 9-5 season in 2015. New head coach Jay Hopson returns 13 starters, and the Golden Eagles are poised to contend for the Conference USA Championship.

The Pick: Kentucky 42, Southern Miss 41

This may be one of the most entertaining games of a loaded week in college football. Both offenses should put up big numbers, but expect Drew Barker and the Wildcats to pull out a close fourth quarter win in Lexington.

No. 20 USC vs. No. 1 Alabama (Arlington, TX) (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC)

The defending national champion Crimson Tide opens with a tough USC team on a neutral field. The Tide has lost quarterback Jake Coker to the NFL and will look to replace him with junior Cooper Bateman or redshirt freshman Blake Barnett, who are still battling for the spot. Alabama must also replace 2015 Heisman-winning running back Derrick Henry. Sophomores Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris are battling to be the starter but both should see decent playing time over the course of the season. Sophomore Calvin Ridley leads a dynamic group of receivers. Ridley had 1,045 receiving yards last year, placing him second in the SEC. The defense returns key players Jonathan Allen on the defensive line and Tim Williams at linebacker. Both were top three in the SEC in sacks a year ago. USC enters the new season with high expectations yet again. The Trojans lost quarterback Cody Kessler to the NFL and will turn to junior Max Browne to lead an offense that returns nine starters from last season. The offensive line may be the best in the nation and has depth on top of talent. However, the defensive line has holes to replace and could struggle to stop the run. The Trojans have arguably the most versatile athlete in college football in Adoree’ Jackson, who is listed as a cornerback. Jackson scored from all three units a season ago, with a 46-yard interception return for a touchdown, two receiving touchdowns, and two punt-returns for touchdowns.

The Pick: Alabama 31, USC 23

Alabama has not lost a season opener since falling to UCLA in 2001, and never have they lost the opener under head coach Nick Saban. The Tide will turn to its ground game and rely on Cam Robinson and the O-line to exploit the Trojans inexperienced defensive front.

No. 2 Clemson at Auburn (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn and his team went just 7-6 a year ago, after beginning the season ranked in the top 10. Redshirt sophomore Sean White has been named the starter after winning the job in fall camp. Auburn will turn to senior wide receivers Marcus Davis and Tony Stevens to lead a young group of talented freshmen wideouts. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway will anchor a ground attack that must produce in order to take pressure off of White and allow the offense to be effective. The Tigers hired Kevin Steele as their new defensive coordinator. Steele’s inherited defense looks to be the strength of the team and will rely on veteran pass rusher Carl Lawson to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Joining Lawson is a deep defensive line that includes defensive tackle Montravius Adams and redshirt sophomore Dontavius Russell. Expect the defense to be much improved from a year ago and very tough against the run. Auburn will match up against the defending ACC Champion Clemson Tigers who are led by junior quarterback and Heisman hopeful Deshaun Watson. Clemson returns eight starters on offense and should be just as dynamic as last season. Wayne Gallman will be a force out of the Tigers backfield. The Clemson defense only returns four starters and will rely on the veteran leadership of defensive tackle Carlos Watkins and linebacker Ben Boulware.

The Pick: Clemson, 38 Auburn 24

The talent on the Clemson offense will be too much to overcome for Auburn. Jordan-Hare stadium will be loud and will likely help keep Auburn in the game for the first half but the pace will be too much for the unproven offense in the second half.

Monday Sept. 5

No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Florida State (Orlando, FL) (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Hugh Freeze is entering his fifth year as head coach for Ole Miss and is aiming to continue his linear progression of the program. The Rebels have bested their record by one game each season since Freeze became coach. Following a 10-3 season, the Rebels would like to continue the trend this year. With victories over Alabama in the past two seasons, the Rebels have shown the ability to win the big games but were plagued with losses to Memphis and Arkansas last season. Veteran quarterback Chad Kelly will lead an offense that returns just five starters. Wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil have both gone to the NFL and nearly the whole offensive live will be replaced from last season. Replacing Treadwell at wide receiver will be true freshman A.J. Brown, who will likely play a big role in the offense. The Rebels suffer another big loss as Robert Nkemdiche left for the NFL. Defensive end Marquis Haynes leads a group that only returns five starters but still has the potential to remain a force in the SEC. Jimbo Fisher’s Seminoles are primed for a terrific season. The offense returns all of its starters except at quarterback. Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is set to start alongside an elite ground threat in junior All-American running back Dalvin Cook. On defense, the Seminoles are left with seven returning starters and are looking to some extremely talented youth to fill their shoes. The defense is considered to be more athletic than last year despite the loss of cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the fifth pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

The Pick: Florida State 38, Ole Miss 27

Florida State will depend on their veteran offense to power past the Rebels. The Seminoles have the talent to make the College Football Playoff but will have to get past Clemson before then. With inexperience on the O-line for the Rebels, they will have to develop their young linemen to give Kelly time to operate in the pocket.


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