Professor dubs event ‘cascading disaster’
Though the devastation of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami tragedy occurred more than 9,000 miles away, the effects can still be felt by USC international and study abroad students who have had to ensure the safety of their loved ones or themselves.
Third-year media arts student Kae Benton moved to the states from Tokyo when she was 6 years old, leaving behind her grandparents. Benton said she learned through video chat that her grandparents’ house proved safe and was unaffected by the earthquake and tsunami.
“I’m glad my grandparents were safe, but my friend’s apartment got some damage from the earthquake, and she had some cracks in her wall because it was so old and her family had to evacuate,” Benton said. “I’m hoping to go see my grandparents this summer if everything works out.”
The earthquake is the largest to ever hit Japan, which “says a lot because they have so many,” according to USC geography professor Susan Cutter. It was measured at a 8.9 magnitude, and its death toll could reach tens of thousands, according to Japanese officials quoted in national news media.
Even though Japan has some of the best building codes, it doesn’t matter when it is such a large magnitude, Cutter said.
Cutter, who is also the director of USC’s Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, is known internationally for her studies conducted to evaluate the United States’ chances of natural disasters and has worked with international emergency preparedness teams. She refers to the Japanese event as a “cascading disaster.”
“First there was the earthquake, then the tsunami, which was traveling at 500 mph, and now potential radioactive damage all while Japan must provide food, water and shelter to its 100 million residents,” Cutter said. “It’s going to take years, maybe a decade or more, for recovery.”
Cutter also said that, unlike a hurricane, it is impossible to predict an earthquake, and Japanese forecasters were much better at predicting the tsunami.
“There was a specific tsunami warning to all countries with a Pacific coastline, and they were very good at timing when it was going to hit Hawaii and then California,” Cutter said.
Other researchers, such as Simon Hudson, endowed chair for the Center for Economic Excellence in Tourism and Economic Development in the School of Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism Management, disagree that recovery will take several years and said that Japan is not as badly damaged as the media is portraying.
In researching Thailand’s 2004 tsunami, Hudson said he discovered that only 75 percent of the hotels closed down and people stopped traveling because of the images they saw in the news.
“Now, that’s not to say that there weren’t significant damages,” Hudson said. “Places like Japan have important recovery strategies planned, and unlike Thailand, which lies so heavily on tourism, Japan is much more focused on internal improvement like their economy. I don’t see [recovery] taking too long.”
Hudson suggests that people still planning to visit Japan check the U.S. travel advisory to make sure the conditions overseas are safe.