Starting Rotation
The Mets’ staff ranked fourth overall in 2015 with a collective 3.44 ERA, second with 1002.2 innings pitched, ninth in strikeouts per nine innings and eighth with a collective opponent batting average of just .288. Compare that to the Royals whose starters ranked 22nd in baseball with a 4.22 ERA, 24th with 912.2 innings pitched, 25th in strikeouts per nine innings and 27th with a .266 opponent batting average.
The Mets have two pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs in Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA) who have both been in great form during the playoffs.
Adding an established ace like Johnny Cueto definitely helped bolster the Royals below-average rotation as that allowed them to drop struggling veteran Jeremy Guthrie and his disastrous 5.95 ERA from the rotation. However, even with Cueto, the Royals appear to be at an obvious disadvantage, considering Cueto pitched to a 4.34 ERA in the second half and has been inconsistent in the playoffs.
ADVANTAGE: METS
Bullpen
The Royals standout bullpen played a huge role in their run to the World Series last season and that has been the case again in 2015. The Royals have one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in Wade Davis who pitched to an absurd 0.94 ERA in 67.1 innings pitched, allowing just 33 hits and 20 walks while striking out 78. He also picked up an 8-1 record in games in which he was the deciding pitcher and has gone 17-for-18 in save opportunities.
Kelvin Herrera is the other standout reliever in this bullpen, armed with a fastball that comfortably sits in the upper 90s and often touches 100 MPH. Overall, the Kansas City bullpen ranked second in baseball with a 2.72 ERA, more than making up for the pedestrian numbers posted by their starters.
The Mets bullpen pitched to a respectable 3.48 ERA in 2015, which ranked 11th in baseball. The Mets also have a standout closer in their stable as Jheurys Familia pitched posted a 1.85 ERA in 78 innings of work while going 43-for-48 in save opportunities.
ADVANTAGE: ROYALS
Lineup
The Royals lineup will present an interesting challenge for the talented Mets pitching staff, as they were collectively the most difficult lineup to strike out in baseball this year. As a team, they struck out in just 15.9 percent of their plate appearances, by far the lowest percentage in the majors. While they finished 24th with 139 home runs, they did rank seventh in the majors in total runs scored. The Mets were eighth and 17th in those categories, respectively.
Ultimately, though, I give the Mets the advantage here for the following reasons. Trade deadline acquisition Yoenis Cespedes truly jump-started the offense with an MVP like performance over the final two months (.287 AVG, 17 HR, 44 RBI, .941 OPS in just 57 games). They have more power in their lineup and will face a weaker starting pitching staff than the Royals have to deal with. They also have Daniel Murphy, who has somehow transformed himself into Babe Ruth in the playoffs, setting the record for home runs in consecutive playoff games with his current six-game streak.
ADVANTAGE: METS
Defense
Once again, the Royals put together a strong fielding unit this season. In fact, according to FanGraphs.com defensive metrics, the Royals were the best fielding team in baseball in 2015. Individually, first baseman Eric Hosmer, catcher Salvador Perez and left fielder Alex Gordon all have gold glove awards to their name. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alcides Escobar are also considered standout defenders and have been finalists in previous seasons for the award.
The Mets rate as a league-average defense overall according to the same defensive metrics. Among the starters, only David Wright has won a gold glove and that was back in 2008. In the outfield, Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes are considered above average defenders and have been nominated for gold gloves in the past. Other than those two, the Mets field mostly average glove men at the other positions.
ADVANTAGE: ROYALS
The Pick: Mets in six.