For those of you who watched the Republican debate on Saturday night, it probably started to get weird the first time you saw Dr. Ben Carson on the screen. Beginning with the candidate introductions, and throughout the rest of the night, the ABC News Republican debate was just … weird. The presentation resembled a sloppy Good Morning America episode, while the candidate rhetoric turned ugly and some politicians cracked under the pressure. There may not have been a clear winner, but the clear loser was undoubtedly Sen. Marco Rubio.
So, what happened to Rubio? At an early point in the debate, it seemed as if someone in the Rubio campaign had accidentally flipped the switch to “repeat.” It started when Gov. Chris Christie criticized Rubio for being nothing more than a politician who has a 25-second speech. As a response, Rubio kept repeating his 25-second speech that President Obama “knows exactly what he is doing” — a pivot point that was irrelevant to the topic.
Why is this important?
Well, the Rubio campaign had the most to win going into Saturday’s debate. Coming off a third-place finish in Iowa, a strong showing in New Hampshire could solidify Rubio’s position as the strongest establishment candidate. But the “Rubio glitch” Saturday night certainly dealt a blow to that momentum. Consider: 33 percent of New Hampshire Republican voters said they could change their minds over the closing weekend.
With a high number of undecided or swayable voters in New Hampshire, these late debates matter. Saturday night could’ve been a huge win for Rubio, but he choked. Worse, those voters who missed the debate on live television are now reading the negative media coverage. Those undecided New Hampshire voters might now consider other candidates. If they look toward those who had strong debate performances, they have a few options.
John Kasich, who has placed third in recent New Hampshire polls, is now in a strong position. True to form, Kasich’s performance wasn’t flashy or aggressive, but he stayed out of the fireworks. He came across as a truly experienced politician with executive experience, without a strong conservative tilt. His slightly moderate, calm demeanor is palatable to the New Hampshire independent voters, who can vote in either primary.
Christie captured a lot of attention with his attacks on Rubio, and a strong performance in New Hampshire is essential to his campaign. While Christie is currently polling sixth in New Hampshire, it could be expected that he gets a bump in support on the day of the primary. Jeb Bush, who is polling right ahead of Christie, could now finish in the top five as well. If Bush is unable to do so, his campaign will be in very dire straits.
Sen. Ted Cruz had the most time on camera Saturday night, for whatever that is worth. New Hampshire hasn’t been a big target for the Cruz campaign, especially considering its victory in Iowa. As long as Cruz finishes anywhere in the top five, his campaign should be able to move forward with confidence.
Long story short, Saturday night’s debate was different from what I, and most people, had expected. The performances of the candidates will certainly affect New Hampshire, and a solid showing for Donald Trump may have won him the state.
If Trump wins New Hampshire, as I think he will, John Kasich will likely come in second place with about 17 percent of the vote. Because of Rubio’s faltering performance, Bush just might finish in third with the votes — and delegates — his campaign needs to stay viable. I don’t see Rubio falling any farther than fourth place, and Cruz rounding out the top five.
While these predictions might sound crazy, considering the polls, remember that polls don’t always matter. This is especially true in a state with lots of undecided voters, like New Hampshire. At this point, everything is speculation, but we will have our answers by Tuesday night.