The topic of resuming diplomatic and economic relations with Cuba has been a big issue in the current presidential race. Candidates on the Republican side — with the exception of Donald Trump — believe that a warming of relations with Cuba will simply strengthen the aging communist regime. Those on the Democratic side, however, believe that the only way to bring liberalization and the end of the government is through negotiations and trade. The way forward favored by Democrats is the best way forward. Cuba offers us a new trading partner, improved regional security and more regional influence. Throwing away that chance in favor of the continuation of a failed foreign policy would be both hypocritical — given our relationships with other repressive nations like Saudi Arabia and China — and shortsighted.
Cuba’s relationship with the U.S. has been uneasy since its independence in 1902. Our interventions in the country during the early 1900s to stabilize the fractured political and security situation certainly won us no fans among the population. Nor did our support of the president, in name only, Fulgencio Batista, whose authoritarian rule brought about the deaths of countless Cubans. When Castro’s revolutionary forces eventually took control, they went straight to the Soviets for help, not only because of ideological similarities, but because they had no reason to trust the U.S., particularly following the Bay of Pigs incident. In the familiar Cold War trend of escalation, we embargoed the nation in 1960, and the Soviets based nuclear tipped ballistic missiles on island in 1962, leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
In the hangover following the end of the crisis, U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba was much the same as it is today: an embargo and extremely limited diplomatic relations. Only recently, with President Obama’s moves to bring Cuba back to the table, has a plausible detente between our two nations looked even remotely possible. Unfortunately, plans of this nature take time, so it seems that the future of this policy depends almost entirely on the next president.
Whoever the new president is, he or she will be faced with a weighty choice: Continue a foreign policy that has done little to undermine the power and repression of the Cuban regime or smother it with trade and talks. As neither approach is guaranteed to end the stranglehold that the Castro regime holds on the country, perhaps we should consider what we stand to gain in the short-term from the Democratic plan of action.
Cuba is not the moderately wealthy country they were before the revolution; over half a century of economic mismanagement and the embargo has assured that. Despite this, Cuba as trade partner has much to offer. Cuba’s exports totaled about 2.43 billion dollars in 2013, and its imports totaled roughly 6.72 billion in the same year. While Cuban exports don’t offer us a whole lot besides cheaper sugar, medication and tobacco, their imports look promising. Cuba imports a significant amount of machine goods, refined petroleum and cars, all major exports of the U.S. A trade relationship with Cuba would not only be profitable for the U.S., but it could create jobs as a result of increased exports.
Cuba, in recent years, has also been a key component in regional security for Central and South America. Cuba is currently hosting peace talks between two longtime enemies: the rebel group FARC and the Colombian government. Cuba has also been an invaluable resource in fighting drug trafficking in the Caribbean, succeeding where its neighbors fail. Resumed negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba could lead to a safer, more secure region.
Another factor that should be considered with Cuba is regional influence. In our multipolar world, influence and relationships between countries can be an important dynamic in trade negotiations, military partnerships and regional security. Should we fail to take advantage of our opportunity with Cuba, they could come under the influence of a rising China or a resurgent Russia, which is certainly an outcome that is unacceptable for U.S. regional aspirations.
Cuba’s human rights abuses, as deplorable as they are, are no reason to further the fruitless endeavor of embargoes and a lack of diplomatic relations. Our current official stance, and that of many Republican presidential candidates, offers little and simply continues to drive Cuba away from our influence and toward the influence of similarly repressive regimes in Russia and China. By opening up trade and relations, not only could we gain much in the short term, but we could also exert more influence on the Cuban government to help them create a freer country and society.