With recent environmental events such as snow precipitation and earthquakes, Columbia’s response to these messages is part of a greater understanding to unpack the best way to communicate with the community.
Shadya Davis, a research assistant professor in the geography department, explained that the type of environmental event that's heading toward the community isn’t always the issue, but how the message is communicated that influences the response. Although she’s a trained meteorologist, her research focuses on the community's reaction to weather.
"What makes it a disaster is how we all respond to it and what's our threshold for dealing with a situation," Davis said. "If you're completely unprepared, it's catastrophic. If you have some mitigation tools or some preparation, it can be a lot less impactful.”
Over the weekends of Jan. 24 and Jan. 31, Columbia was predicted to have ice storms and snow precipitation. Davis noted how sometimes the best form of communication in times such as these are the one with the simplest message.
"A lot of times, it's like, 'Can you explain it to your grandma?'” Davis said. “Once you've hit the grandma category, then you're usually good to go.”
Understandable message
Greg Carbone, professor in the Department of Geography, teaches the honors broadcast meteorology class. He hopes to connect students to the relationship the media has with spreading information about environmental events.
"I want them to understand more about weather and climate,” Carbone said. “I really want them to be able to express it in ways that a general audience can understand. I don't want them to compromise on the science. I want them to explain complex things in very clear ways, accessible ways for a general public.”
Dan Frost, director of the South Carolina Seismic Network and assistant professor in the School of the Earth, Ocean and Environment, said research into community response is not only consolidated to meteorologists. The research extends across fields to cover all aspects of environmental events, including earthquake warnings on the West Coast.
"They were trying to figure out what the best information to convey in a short period of time is,” Frost said. “What do you have to tell people for them to respond, to know what to do, and to not over or underreact?"
The National Weather Service predicted 4-7 inches of snow to fall for the weekend of Jan. 31. However, Columbia averaged 3-5 inches of snow, according to The Post and Courier. While on the boundary of a mix of different precipitation, Carbone said this prediction was a hard one to communicate.
"Across the board, what they tell us is that people have an underappreciation for how accurate forecasts are, mostly because they don't notice when it's a hit," Carbone said. "They're more likely to notice when it's a miss, because a miss has consequences that they care more about.”
Carbone said the act of over-predicting weather served as a way to over-prepare and best protect the community. Carbone said the last few weekends can serve as an engaging opportunity for his students, helping them understand more about weather patterns in Columbia and the role media has in the prediction process.
"I think, in both cases, people responded in a way that made it look like they had a certain level of trust,” Carbone said. “They were taking it seriously and not terribly overreacting, but sort of being aware of it.”
Predicting responses
According to WIS 10, the surrounding Columbia area experienced a minor earthquake with a magnitude of 2.2 on Jan. 20. With a lack of knowledge on seismology within South Carolina, Frost said similar events give him the opportunity to shed light on the topic in a way that makes it easier to understand.
"I don't think the residents of Columbia or the greater Columbia area need to worry,” Frost said. “This is a curiosity. It's almost a thing that reminds us of our place in the world, which is the edge of the Appalachian Mountains. They are here, and we are on the edge of the floor.”
Experiences and location are factors that play into the perspective a community member has when hearing of upcoming environmental events. Having worked on both coastlines now, Frost said it’s a matter of what people expect. California’s response to an earthquake contrasts with what South Carolina’s reaction would resemble.
"Something that's entirely out of the ordinary, like an earthquake, even if it's very small ... people will still get worried about it because it is so unusual,” Frost said.
Connecting the public to information about upcoming environmental events that could potentially put communities in danger is an action Davis views as a service. How much preparation individuals should take can be attributed to the trust people have in their forecasters.
“For most meteorologists, the work that they do, it's in service of helping other people,” Davis said. "That's why they're called the National Weather Service. It really is a service. The entire motto there is to protect life and property."
When it comes to where the responsibility falls to tackle this communication, Frost said it becomes difficult.
"It gets tricky because you want the information to be communicated as quickly as possible, but also you need a uniform message,” Frost said. “Everyone needs to know what to say. Really having a single source to refer to is best, but they have to be really rapid at disseminating the information that they think everybody needs to know.”
While it can be overwhelming for the community when environmental events seem to stack as they have the past few weeks, Davis said this is when communication on action is most important.
“Listen to your local meteorologist, and they will tell you their confidence in it, what the risks are, and why they're saying what they're saying,” Davis said.